- Employment rose 246k in August – led by a rise in full-time jobs
- The unemployment rate fell to 10.2% despite a tick up in labour force participation
- Labour markets still exceptionally weak, but still getting better
The 246k increase in employment in August was the fourth straight sizeable increase, though the pace was slower than July’s 419k increase and June’s 953k rise. The pace of employment growth is slowing, but that was expected with the initial recovery-boost from easing virus containment measures in the spring fading through the summer.
And the details of the August employment gain were a little better than the headline employment numbers. Full-time positions accounted for 84% of the headline jobs gain after an increase heavily weighted to part-time work the prior month. Overall the recovery in full-time work is still lagging the bounce-back in part-time jobs – just over half of full time job losses over March and April have now been recouped versus closer to 90% for part-time work. And an elevated share of those working part time are doing so despite preferring full-time work. Hours worked increased more than employment in August – but are still down more relative to pre-shock February levels (-8.6%) than the headline employment count (-5.7%)
To be clear, labour markets are still very weak. Employment is still down more than a million from February, even after the August gain. The unemployment rate fell to 10.2% but that is still above the peak rate during the 2008/09 recession. The number of those on layoff is still exceptionally elevated. Temporary layoffs have eased more quickly (as expected) as the economy reopened, but a larger share of those still off-work are on permanent layoff, and it could take longer for those to be re-connected to jobs. A smaller share of job losses have been retraced in hard-hit industries like accommodation & food services and entertainment. But conditions continue to improve, even if at a more gradual pace.
