The main event of yesterday was the publication of data on retail trade in the United States. Indicators declined in February, which was partly influenced by winter weather across much of the country. The market perceived this as a temporary factor of a decrease in demand, and an increase in consumer activity is expected in the near future.
Total retail sales declined by 3% in February, after a significant increase by 7.6% in January, which became the highest indicator in seven months, the Commerce Department announced on Tuesday.
The most important metric – data from a “control group” that excludes catering, car dealerships, building materials stores, and gas stations – decreased by 3.5% in February after increasing by 8.7% in January. Over the past three months, sales of the control group have increased by 3.5% at an annualized rate. This indicator reflects basic consumer demand and is often correlated with GDP indicators. On this basis, it can be assumed that economic growth in the first quarter will still be significant.
The main event of this day and week as a whole will be the announcement of the results of the Federal Reserve System meeting. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference. Investors will be keeping a close eye on what signals the market will receive from the monetary regulator following the recent rapid rise in bond yields. If there is a significant difference in the views of the ECB and the Fed, volatility in the foreign exchange market may increase in both the short and medium term.
In anticipation of tonight, the stock market is frozen. The S&P 500 is holding near the 3.950 for the second session in a row. Treasury yield rose slightly to 1.63% from 1.61% at the opening of trading in Europe. The dollar index has been holding steady near 91.90 for three sessions in a row.
Main market quotes:
- S&P 500 (F) 3,949.25 -3.25 (-0.08%)
- Dow Jones 32,825.95 -127.51 (-0.39%)
- DAX 14,558.80 +1.22 (+0.01%)
- FTSE 100 6,774.03 -29.58 (-0.43%)
- USD Index 91.957 +0.077 (+0.08%)
Important events:
- Eurozone CPI (y/y) (Feb) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- Canada Core CPI (m/m) (Feb) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
- FOMC Statement at 20:00 (GMT+2);
- FOMC press conference at 20:30 (GMT+2).
