Risk mode on as Ukraine-Russia start fourth round of discussions
While there is no clarity on what the positive assessments emerged from the latest Russian-Ukraine high-level talks are, markets continued to behave like the fourth-round of talks would result in another positive outcome today even if Russia’s attacks expanded closer to the Polish borders, and the war conditions remain largely unchanged.
Another reason for the current risk-on tendencies is perhaps the fact that investors have started to adjust to the new normality, making less aggressive selling decisions, as central banks are willing to move forward with their policy tightening plans with scope to balance the sanction-led inflationary spikes.
The safe-haven global bond markets faced another downturn, with short-term and longer-term bond yields unlocking fresh highs.
The monetary reserve metal gold followed suit, extending last week’s decline to $1,954/ounce before bouncing slightly up, while palladium was a bigger victim, slumping by around 10% on the day.
In other commodities, WTI crude oil futures also slipped on hopes of a ceasefire in Ukraine, stretching the decline from a 14-year high of $130.50 to $102.47/barrel. Efforts to revive the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal, which is expected to allow more oil supply from Iran, could face fresh complications after the Iranian missile attack on Iraq on Sunday. On top of that, the US has recently expressed thoughts to strike a separate accord without Russia if Moscow refuses to meet demands for exemptions from Ukrainian-related sanctions.
Stocks claim soft gains
In stock markets, gains in financial and industrial shares overshadowed losses in the energy sector, boosting the pan-European STOXX 600 moderately up. Likewise, the British FTSE 100 was gradually recouping its previous losses despite the sharp sell-off in basic material shares. Meanwhile in the US, Wall Street is set for a mixed open, with futures tracking the Dow Jones and S&P 500 trading in the green zone and against a soft decline in the Nasdaq 100.
In business highlights, the German carmaker Volkswagen saw its stock surging after doubling its operating profit.
Dollar/yen extends rally; European currencies moderately up
Turning to the FX space, the soft recovery in European currencies and particularly the strength in the euro, which will be eagerly watched in the coming months as the ECB is preparing to join the tightening club in the second half of the year, pressed the dollar index marginally lower. Yet, thanks to the falling yen, dollar/yen managed to grow in the green territory, crawling above the crucial 117.50 key resistance region to touch the 118.00 psychological level ahead of the FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday.
Powell has clearly stated that the Fed will raise its interest rate by a quarter-percent this week, but it would be interesting to see how policymakers will plot their rate hike projections amid the sanctions war. The Bank of England is largely expected to follow the Fed’s footsteps the next day, raising its rate to 0.75% on Thursday according to futures markets, though UK employment readings could cause some volatility earlier on Tuesday at 07:00 GMT as pound/dollar is pushing for some recovery after almost touching the 1.3000 level.
Investors will also be looking for any hawkish remarks when the RBA releases the minutes of its March meeting at 00:30 GMT on Tuesday. Despite the risk-on mode in markets, aussie/dollar could not achieve buying traction, changing hands lower at 0.7240 to be the worst performing pair among its major peers. Perhaps rising infections and new lockdowns in Chinese provinces kept sentiment downbeat, as China is a key buyer of Australian commodity exports.
