US stocks wavered on Thursday as the market continued reflecting on the decision by the Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 were little changed after the Fed warned that it will likely hike interest rates in the next bi-annual meetings. It also warned that inflation will likely keep rising because of the ongoing crisis in Ukraine that has disrupted supply chains globally. Meanwhile, data published showed that the economy was doing well. Initial jobless claims rose by just 212k while the Philadelphia manufacturing index rose from 15 to 24 in February.
The Japanese yen was little changed against key peers like the US dollar and euro after the Bank of Japan delivered its interest rate decision. Unlike the Fed and the Bank of England, the BOJ decided to leave interest rates unchanged at -0.10%, where it has been in the past few years. The bank will also continue its asset purchase program in a bid to support the economy. At the same time, they warned that the rising inflation will push it to start winding down its policies in the coming months.
The economic calendar will be a bit muted on Friday. As such, investors will continue focusing on the rates decision by the Fed, BOJ, and the BOE. In its decision on Thursday, the Bank of England decided to hike interest rates for the third straight meeting. Some of the top data to watch today will be the latest Canadian retail sales and US existing home sales numbers. Still, their impact on the respective currencies will be muted.
EURUSD
The EURUSD pair has been in a narrow range in the past few days. As a result, it formed a triangle pattern between the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels. On Thursday, it managed to form a bullish breakout pattern as the market focused on the Fed and geopolitics. On the three-hour chart, it moved above the 38.2% retracement level and the 25-day moving average. Therefore, it will likely keep rising today.
USDCHF
The USDCHF pair retreated sharply in the overnight session as the US dollar weakness continued. It dropped to a low of 0.9350, which was significantly lower than the intraweek high of 0.9461. On the four-hour chart, it has moved below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands while the MACD and the RSI are pointing lower. Therefore, the pair will likely continue being under pressure today.
XAUUSD
The XAUUSD pair made some recovery in the overnight session after crashing in the first few days of the week. It is trading at 1,945, which was slightly above this week’s low of 1,893. On the four-hour chart, the pair managed to move above the key resistance level at 1,915. It has risen above the 25-day moving average while the RSI has risen above the oversold level. Therefore, the pair will likely keep rising.
