Tue, Feb 07, 2023 @ 23:43 GMT
HomeContributorsFundamental AnalysisEquities, Oil Fall, Brent Below $80pb for the First Time Since January

Equities, Oil Fall, Brent Below $80pb for the First Time Since January

Equities extend the downside recovery, following the failure to clear an important year-to-date resistance last week, which was the S&P500’s year-to-date descending channel top at around the 4080 level. The index cleared the first bearish target, at 3956 level, the minor 23.6% retracement on the latest rebound and tested its 100-DMA to the downside, but managed to close above that level. Nasdaq slumped 2%, with Apple retreating more than 2.50% while Amazon lost 3% as investors dumped technology stocks faster than the others.

And even oil giants joined the selloff this week. Exxon lost more than 2.50% both on Monday and on Tuesday, as the latest drop in oil prices didn’t help improve the mood.

The American crude lost more than 7% since the weekly open. If Monday’s fall was mostly driven by a global market selloff, yesterday’s selloff was definitely due to the EIA revising its oil production forecast higher for next year, after having cut this prediction for the past five months.

So, now, the EIA expects the US to pump around 12.34 mio barrels per day in 2023, approaching the historical high production of 2019.

Yesterday’s selloff sent the barrel of Brent crude below the $80 mark for the first time since the very beginning of this year, and pulled the barrel of American crude a couple of cents below the late November dip, at around $73.40. And even the API data – which showed a 6.4-mio-barrel drop in US oil inventories couldn’t bring the oil bulls in. The more official EIA data is due today. Trend and momentum indicators hint that the recession fears could well push the barrel of oil toward the $70pb despite falling oil reserves in the US.

Russian oil price cap is a warning for OPEC 

What’s good about the falling oil prices is that the Russian oil cap becomes somehow meaningless as prices fall, though the Europeans said to revise the cap every two months. For now, there is not much to worry apart from a couple of vessels carrying Russian oil that are stuck near Turkey as Turks ask insurance apparently to let them sail away.

But here is the thing. The fact that the G7, the EU and Australia agreed to cap the price of Russian oil gave a strong message to the rest of the oil producers: they could do the same with OPEC.

So far, US President Joe Biden reassured OPEC that this is not a ‘buyers’ league’ and that the decisions apply only to Russia. But we can’t stop thinking that if OPEC goes severely against the US’ will to stop messing around with oil prices, there is no reason we won’t see a buyers’ league emerge from the darkness.

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