UK inflation data was released this morning, showing that consumer price inflation (CPI) held steady at 6.7% in September, although economists had expected 6.6%, which would mean the CPI would continue to decline from its peak of 11.1%, achieved at the end of last year.
These data provide evidence to suggest that inflation has stalled. And the Bank of England will have to make another interest rate increase. Tighter monetary policy → more expensive currency. Therefore, the pound reacted to the news that inflation had not changed with short-term growth relative to other currencies.
On the GBP/USD chart, a picture emerges indicating that the pound has found important support at the level of 1.215. Judge for yourself:
→ On September 27, the rate dropped lower very uncertainly, but rose very confidently the next day;
→ On October 3, the dive below the level of 1.215 was more significant, but the recovery again was not long in coming. And the bulls were able to lift the GBP/USD rate from the October 4 low by more than 2%;
→ Long lower shadows on the candles (the most noticeable on October 6) indicate demand strength around 1.215;
→ Analysis of the price movement on October 13 shows that this horizontal continues to provide support.
From the bears’ point of view, the downward channel is still relevant, but note that its median line is already gaining support properties (judging by the price action at the end of Friday, October 13th).
Considering the facts presented, we can assume that the rate is clamped into a triangle (shown in purple), and if it breaks through, an important impulse can form. Moreover, the drivers for the breakdown may arrive as early as tomorrow: at 15:30 GMT+3, unemployment data in the US will be published, and at 21:00, the head of the Fed will give a speech.
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