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Your Weekly Fundamental View

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The main focus of this week is on GBP CPI and RBNZ rate decision. It is a light week, and we don’t expect any big turmoil from the standard news calendar, but there are some important events that traders should be paying attention to. Let’s take a look.

Coming up

AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are released on Tuesday, 21 March.

This is a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board’s most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions.

Why should you care? The report creates short-term impact in the markets. The RBA might be providing cues in the currency evaluation and traders could look for some short-term trade setups. Through the statement, traders can get a hint of future policy outcomes.

GBP CPI is due on Tuesday, 21 March.

The report measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumer.

Why should you care? This could be the UK’s most important inflation data because it’s used as the central bank’s inflation target.

NZD GDT Price Index is out on Tuesday, 21 March.

GDT measures the change in the average price of dairy products sold at auction.

Why should you care? It’s a leading indicator of the nation’s trade balance with other countries.

USD Crude Oil Inventories are due on Wednesday, 22 March.

A build-up in crude oil inventories usually signals decreasing demand from refiners. On the other hand, a drop would signal that refiners are still producing at elevated levels and the inventory overhang in oil products could continue.

Why should you care? This is primarily a US indicator, but it also affects CAD due to Canada’s huge energy sector. Previous data showed a -0.2m barrels decrease.

NZD Official Cash Rate decision is released on Wednesday, 22 March.

Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks overnight is also followed by the RBNZ statement that offers clues regarding the outcome of future decisions.

Why should you care? The rate decision might priced into the market, so it tends to be overshadowed by the RBNZ Rate Statement that is focused on the future. NZD basket tends to move heavily with this report. Volatility is expected.

GBP Retail sales will be released on Thursday, 23 March.

Retail sales are the primary gauge of consumer spending, released monthly, approximately 20 days after the month ends.

Why should you care? The report might create a short-term spike that traders might like to trade.

USD Fed Chief Yellen speaks on Thursday, 23 March.

Mrs. Yellen is supposed to deliver opening remarks at the Federal Reserve System Community Development Research Conference in Washington DC, USA.

Why should you care? As the head of the major central bank who’s also in control of short term interest rates, Mrs. Yellen has more influence over the nation’s currency value than any other person. Traders should pay attention for some subtle cues regarding future monetary policy.

CAD CPI is out on Friday, 24 March.

The report represents the overall change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

Why should you care? CAD currency basket tends to move with this report.

USD Core durable goods orders will be released on Friday, 24 March.

Being a leading indicator of production, these orders might either rise or drop. Rising purchase orders cue that manufacturers might increase activity.

Why should you care? The report tends to have a short-term impact on the dollar movement.

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