Market Movers ahead

  • Minutes from the October ECB meeting could well provide clues as to what will happen after September next year when the current QE programme is set to end.
  • The minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting are less likely to be interesting.
  • PMIs in the euro area are likely to show further increases although the stronger EUR weighs on businesses, and Markit PMIs for the US are expected to increase as they are catching up to ISM numbers.
  • The Swedish Riksbank’s financial stability report is likely to draw attention, given the turnaround in the housing market.
  • Survey data could point to a rebound in oil investments in Norway next year.

Global macro and market themes

  • In the equity market, we have seen a correction from stretched levels but it should prove temporary.
  • The likelihood of US tax cuts has increased and will remain a market theme for the rest of the year.
  • Any dips in EUR/USD should be shallow and short-lived and we expect it to move higher again next year.
  • We think risks to our outlook for yields over the next couple of months have now become more symmetric and that the downside potential for yields should not be neglected.

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