Here are the latest developments in global markets:
- FOREX: The pound turned to be the worst performer among major currencies despite impressive manufacturing PMI figures, trading below the $1.3500 key level after touching a fresh two-month high of 1.3548 early in the Asian trading (-0.25%). Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI stood at multi-year highs, but the euro pared earlier gains, falling back to 1.1900. Dollar/yen remained flat at 112.33, while dollar/loonie was steady at 1.288. The kiwi overperformed its peers, jumping to $0.6550 (+0.22%).
- Stocks: European stocks declined as technology shares dragged the market. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell to a two-week low (- 0.75%), the British FTSE 100 index lost 0.35% and the German DAX 30 index dived by 1.15%. US stock futures were in the red.
- COMMODITIES: Oil prices held onto gains after OPEC and non-OPEC members including Russia compromised to extend supply-cuts until the end of 2018. However, the deal’s desired effects are now depending on the US and China. WTI crude was 0.75% up at $57.74 per barrel and Brent gained 0.88% to $63.10. Gold was roughly flat at $1,276.0 per ounce.
Day ahead: US tax story & Brexit in the background; Canada’s GDP growth under scrutiny
The loonie and the dollar would attract some caution by investors as economic releases out of Canada and the US during European trading hours might bring some volatility to the currencies. Besides that, markets would be sensitive to any updates in the US tax story after Senate Republicans decided yesterday to postpone voting on the tax bill to Friday over disagreements on the sustainability of the plan.
Statistics Canada will publish readings on GDP growth and employment at 1330GMT. According to the forecasts, the Canadian economy will likely expand by 0.1% m/m in September after a contraction by an equivalent proportion in August. On a quarterly basis, the annualized GDP growth is projected to narrow from 4.5% to 1.6% in the third quarter. That would be the weakest growth posted since the second quarter of 2016.
In another report, Canadian unemployment is said to inch down by 0.1 percentage points to fall back to nine-year lows of 6.2% in November, while the economy is expected to add 10,000 workers in the labor market in November compared to 35,300 in September.
Back in the US, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) predicts the manufacturing PMI to drop by 0.3 points to 58.4.
In terms of public appearances, the St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will be giving a presentation on the US economy and monetary policy at 1405 GMT and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (an FOMC voting member) will be participating in a Q&A session at 1430 GMT. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker (also an FOMC voting member) will be talking about inclusive economic growth at 1515 GMT.
Brexit news could also shake the pound as Theresa May’s deadline on December 4 to propose solutions to three key elements – those being the UK’s financial settlement to the EU, the Irish border and the rights of the European citizens – runs out. Note that May will meet the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Junker in Brussels on Monday to prepare a breeding ground for the EU summit on December 14.
