In focus this week
Today is expected to be somewhat quiet on the data front, although we highlight speeches from New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran in the evening. Markets will be looking for comments on US monetary policy.
The rest of the week will offer many interesting figures ahead of key central bank meetings on Thursday. Important for the euro area, flash PMIs will be released on Tuesday, the final inflation print for November on Wednesday and the ECB growth forecast on Thursday.
Across the Atlantic, the delayed US nonfarm payrolls and full November Jobs Report are set for release on Tuesday along with October retail sales data and December flash PMIs. On Thursday, the November CPI is due for release in the afternoon.
All eyes will be on the Thursday central bank meetings from the ECB, Riksbank, Norges Bank and Bank of England (BoE). Market consensus expects the ECB to leave the deposit rate unchanged on the back of data coming in stronger than expected by the ECB staff. We also expect the Riksbank and Norges bank to keep interest rates steady in line with market pricing. The BoE is expected to cut the bank rate, but the labour market report on Tuesday and November CPI figures on Wednesday may play a role in the final outcome.
Rounding off the week, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hold its meeting. Markets have increasingly expected the BoJ to hike the interest rate in recent weeks as Governor Ueda said he will “consider pros and cons”.
Economic and market news
What happened overnight
In China, the monthly batch of data showed retail sales growth declining to 1.3% in November from 2.9% in October. Industrial output growth slowed marginally to 4.8% y/y in November from 4.9% y/y in October. The figures were below expectations of 2.8% and 5.0% respectively. The housing market continued to weaken, with home prices declining 0.4% m/m and 2.4% y/y in November. As expected, China continues to be a two-speed economy with strong exports and tech development but weak domestic demand.
In Japan, the quarterly Tankan business survey showed manufacturing sentiment rising to +17 in December from the already high level of +15 in September. Sentiment improved in manufacturing to +11 from +7, while the non-manufacturing sentiment stayed at +21. The overall sentiment was +24, +21 and +11 for Large-, Medium- and Small Enterprises respectively. The business sentiment remained fairly strong, however the forecast for next quarter expects sentiment to take a smaller decline as businesses eye a BoJ hike this week.
What happened over the weekend
In the US, we had the first comments following the FOMC December meeting, however they did not provide any clear new signals. Goolsbee was not “hawkish” on interest rates next year, but felt optimistic that they could fall this year, although he felt uncomfortable front loading looser monetary policy. Hammock commented on the labour market gradually cooling but also pointed at inflation remaining above target.
In Sweden, the labour force survey (LFS) for November showed encouraging employment growth of 0.6% m/m. The unemployment rate remained at high levels but edged down to 9.1% SA from 9.3%. The Riksbank will likely continue to express concerns about the labour market during their meeting on Thursday. SPES unemployment declined for the fourth consecutive month in November to 6.7%.
In Germany, the final inflation data for November confirmed the flash estimates. CPI held steady at 2.3% y/y with electricity prices declining 1.5% y/y and food inflation remaining at low levels of 1.2% y/y. The large upside surprise in the HICP index was also confirmed, which rose to 2.6% y/y. HICP services inflation was the culprit behind the surprise as it rose to 4.2% y/y from 3.6% y/y.
Equities: Global equities had a rough end to the week, as renewed concerns around lofty tech valuations weighed on risk sentiment and pushed major indices lower. The S&P 500 ended Friday down 1.1%, resulting in a negative week overall. Friday’s session showed a clear defensive tilt, with cyclicals underperforming by almost 1 percentage point. The Nasdaq ended the day 1.7% lower, while the Russell 2000 declined by around the same magnitude. Over the week as a whole, the MSCI World index ended the week down only around 0.2%.
FI and FX: We have a busy week ahead of us with plenty of central bank meetings and with very different outcomes. We have Norges Bank and the Riksbank meeting on Thursday together with the ECB and Bank of England and finally, Bank of Japan on Friday. The Bank of England is expected to cut rates, while BoJ is expected to hike rates – both by 25bp. ECB, Norges Bank and the Riksbank are all on hold, although Norges Bank is expected to signal a cut in March and the ECB is expected to signal they are on hold and possibly reverse some of the repricing we have seen lately.
