Geopolitics and tech:
US capture of Maduro adds a new front in US-China rivalry: Much has already been said about the US raid in Venezuela but below are my two cents on the implications for China:
US-China relations: The Trump administration has supposedly told interim leader of Venezuela Delcy Rodriquez to kick out China, Russia, Iran and Cuba to avoid continued blockade of oil sales. However, China who has investments in the Venezuelan oil sector, is unlikely to accept its investment in the country basically being seized by the US. Foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Wednesday that “Let me stress that China and other countries have legitimate rights in Venezuela, which must be protected.”
It very much looks like the US has opened a new front in the US-China rivalry in its’ pursuit of dominating the Western Hemisphere as set out in its National Security Strategy. China has major investments in other Latin American countries as well such as Chile, Peru and Bolivia and rely on access to resources from the region. More than 20 countries in Latin America and Caribbean have signed on to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. This sets the stage for new confrontation between the US and China and puts renewed uncertainty over Trump’s visit to Beijing in April. For now China is likely to take a wait-and-see stance and see how the Trump administration implements this policy across the region. But they are unlikely to bow to US pressure and stop investing in Latin America and they will aim to protect the investments they have already done.
It is uncertain Latin American countries react. Will they seek more investments from China (to reduce exposure to US) or less investments (out of fear of US response)? Mexico, being under strong pressure from Trump, leans towards the second option with a new 50% tariff on Chinese goods.
China and the Global South: The US raid fits perfect into what China has been saying for years: that US is a hegemon and imperialist willing to use ruthless power, economically and militarily, to hurt countries that don’t walk to the beat of US drums. It could [RJ1] galvanize desires across the Global South to become less dependent on US, financially, militarily and technologically. This is a clear positive for China that will provide an alternative in all these areas.
Implications for Taiwan issue: My view on this topic, is that it makes little if any difference to Chinese leaders. China already sees the island as Chinese territory and an invasion would be protecting its’ own sovereignty rather than breaching another nation’s sovereignty. Hence, from China’s point of view it would not be a breach of the UN Charter. Seen from Beijing, they do not need external legitimacy to protect what is already theirs, contrasting it to the US raid which was a clear violation of sovereign territory.
