Tue, Jan 31, 2023 @ 23:44 GMT
HomeContributorsFundamental AnalysisUS Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment, UK Industrial Production And Canadian Unemployment

US Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment, UK Industrial Production And Canadian Unemployment

At 09:30 GMT, UK Industrial Production (YoY) (Jan) is expected to be 1.8% against a previous 0.0%. Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jan) is expected to be 0.2% against 0.3% previously. This figure had been less volatile during much of 2017, with readings staying positive but close to zero. Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) is expected to be 1.5% against -1.3% previously. Seasonally, there is generally a downturn in this figure with a drop into negative territory early in the New Year. Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Jan) is expected to be 2.8% against 1.4% previously. GBP pairs could move because of this data release.

At 13:00 GMT, UK NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Feb) is expected to be 0.3% against 0.5% prior. The data point has been moving closer to 0.0% since hitting a high of 1.0% in May 2014. However, it has managed to remain positive in that time, with an average of 0.4%. GBP pairs may experience price volatility from this data release.

At 13:30 GMT, US Non-Farm Payrolls (Feb) is expected at 200K v a prior 200K. This measures the change in the number of employed people in February. The Unemployment Rate (Feb) is expected at 4.0% with a prior of 4.1%. This measures the percentage of the total workforce unemployed and actively seeking employment during February. Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Feb) is expected to be 2.8% against 2.9% previously. Average Weekly Hours (Feb) is expected to be 34.4 against a previous 34.3. Labour Force Participation Rate (Feb) is expected to be 62.5% against a prior reading of 62.7%. It was this data release on the 2nd of February that resulted in the pullback in equity markets last month. At the time, the higher than expected wage data created concern about increased inflation and a responding rise in interest rates, resulting in a perfect storm with the market going risk-off. Any hint of rising wage inflation could see a repeat of events last month, especially given trade tariff tensions. USD crosses could experience volatility around these data releases.

At 13:30 GMT, Canadian Unemployment Rate (Feb) is expected to be 5.9% against a previous 5.9%. Participation Rate (Jan) is expected to be 65.6% against 65.5% prior. Net Change in Employment (Dec) is expected to be 20.0K against a prior -88K. Unemployment had fallen to the lowest levels in ten years in November but ticked up slightly in December, with the large drop in the Net Change in Employment data, the largest fall since 2009. CAD pairs could see an increase in price movement from this data.

At 18.00 GMT, Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Counts will be released, with a headline number from last week of 800. WTI Oil could become volatile around this data release and will be in traders’ minds when trading resumes on Monday.

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