A deluge of economic data will move the currency markets on Wednesday, with high-profile reports from Europe and the United States set to drive the headlines.

The economic calendar kicks off at 07:00 GMT with a report on German consumer inflation. Germany’s consumer price index (CPI) for February is expected to rise 1.4% annually. The harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP), which calculates inflation using a method consistent throughout the European Union, is expected to rise 1.2% year-over-year.

On the monetary policy front, European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech at 08:00 GMT. Less than an hour after Draghi’s speech begins, ECB official Peter Praet will also deliver remarks. Other ECB policymakers scheduled to speak on Wednesday include Victor Constancio and Benoit Coeure.

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Europe’s economic wire continues at 09:00 GMT with a report on Italian retail sales. Receipts at retail stores are forecast to fall 0.1% in January.

The European Commission’s statistics agency will report on industrial production at 10:00 GMT. Industrial output is expected to fall 0.4% in January. Output is expected to be 4.7% stronger than a year ago.

The same agency will report on Eurozone employment at 10:00 GMT. Employment in the currency region is expected to rise 0.3% in the fourth quarter and 1.6% annually.

Shifting gears to North America, the US Department of Commerce will report on retail sales at 12:30 GMT. The February data set is expected to show monthly growth of 0.3%.

The Department of Labor will release the latest producer inflation figures at 12:30 GMT. Factory gate prices are expected to rise 0.1% on month and 2.8% annually.

Rounding out the US release schedule are reports on business inventories and crude inventories. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected to show a weekly build of 1.5 million barrels in the week ending 10 March.


After a bullish start to the week, the euro slammed on the breaks on Tuesday, with the EUR/USD hovering around 1.2400. Investors can expect further bullish upside insofar as prices hold above the 1.2300 handle.


Cable’s ascendancy continued on Tuesday, with prices coming to within a few pips of the psychological 1.4000 level. Price action over the past two days suggest a re-test of the 26 February high is a possibility once prices cross the psychological barrier.


The dollar’s momentum versus the yen went through a series of volatile swings on Tuesday. The USD/JPY touched a two-week high near 107.20 before a sharp decline dragged prices back toward the mid-106.00 region, where they are now. Despite the pullback, the pair is exhibiting stronger momentum, which suggests a return to Tuesday’s high is a possibility.


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