Notes/Observations

Asia:

  • China Mar Trade Balance registered its first deficit in 13-months (-$5.0B v +$27.9Be). Exports YoY: -2.7% v +11.9%e; Imports YoY: +14.4% v +12.4%e
  • Singapore Monetary Authority (MAS) Semi-annual Policy Statement registered its first tightening measure since April 2012 by increasing slightly the slope of the S$NEER Policy Band (prior saw a zero pct appreciation policy). MAS did maintain the width of policy band and the level at which it was centered unchanged.
  • Singapore Q1 Advance GDP Q/Q: 1.4% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: 4.3% v 4.3%e
  • Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga: To set up panel to consider ways to mitigate impact of planned Oct 2019 sales tax increase on economy
  • RBA Financial Stability Review: Risks to Australia from China economy remained elevated. High household debt and riskier lending of recent years remained macro-financial risk.

Europe:

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  • ECB’s Weidmann (Germany): price stability goal must not be weakened
  • Russia UN Ambassador: ‘Syria situation is very dangerous, immediate priority is to avert the danger of war’; asked if referring to war between Russia and US, says ‘we cannot exclude any possibilities unfortunately’

Americas:

  • US President Trump: Would only join Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) if the deal were substantially better than deal offered to predecessor Obama. Already have bilateral deals with 6 of the 11 nations in TPP and are working to make a deal with the biggest of those nations, Japan, who has hit us hard on trade for years
  • Fed’s Kashkari (dove, non-voter) reiterated that had not seen much wage growth nationally but believed tax cuts and govt spending might help push inflation back to 2%
  • Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) leaves Overnight Rate unchanged at 7.50% (as expected). To take quick action if necessary to anchor inflation expectations and achieve convergence to target
  • US military officials said to hold high level talks with Moscow to prevent escalation between US and Russia; military strike in Syria was not coordinated action and Russia not happy about it; deconfliction line remained open

Economic Data:

  • (NL) Netherlands Feb Trade Balance: €4.5B v €3.3B prior
  • (NL) Netherlands Feb Retail Sales Y/Y: 2.6% v 5.1% prior
  • (DE) Germany Mar Final CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6%e
  • (DE) Germany Mar Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e
  • (FI) Finland Mar CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.6% prior
  • (FI) Finland Feb Current Account Balance: €0.3B v €0.4B prior – (FI) Finland Feb Final Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.1% prelim
  • (FI) Finland Feb GDP Indicator WDA Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.2% prior
  • (ES) Spain Mar Final CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e
  • (ES) Spain Mar Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 1.2% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3%e
  • (ES) Spain Mar CPI Core M/M: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.1%e
  • (PL) Poland Mar Final CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.1% prelim; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3% prelim
  • (CZ) Czech Feb Current Account (CZK): 31.0B v 32.0Be
  • (CN) China Mar M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 8.2% v 8.9%e; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.1% v 9.5%e, M0 Y/Y: 6.0% v 7.9%e
  • (CN) China Mar Aggregate Financing (CNY): 1.330T v 1.800Te
  • (CN) China Mar New Yuan Loans (CNY): 1.120T v 1.176Te
  • (IT) Italy Feb General Government Debt: €2.287T v €2.287T prior
  • (EU) Euro Zone Feb Trade Balance (Seasonally Adj): €21.0B v €20.2Be; Trade Balance NSA (unadj): €18.9B v €3.3B prior
  • (GR) Greece Mar CPI Y/Y: -0.2% v +0.1% prior; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.4% prior

Fixed Income Issuance:

  • (IN) India sold total INR120B vs. INR120B indicated in 2023, 2031, 2034 and 2046 bonds

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

  • Indices [Stoxx600 +0.2% at 379.6, FTSE flat at 7257, DAX +0.5% at 12473, CAC-40 +0.2% at 5320, IBEX-35 +0.5% at 9793, FTSE MIB +0.2% at 23358, SMI -0.1% at 8765, S&P 500 Futures +0.1%]
  • Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European Indices trades mixed following strong gains on Wallstreet overnight and mixed futures this morning as risk appetite returns as President Trump dialed back claims on an immanent strike on Syria. On the earnings front Deutz trades sharply higher after strong earnings and revenue growth; L’Oreal trades slightly higher after LFL sales handily beat forecasts. Sage Group trades over 12% lower after cutting its FY guidance with Rocket Internet falling after its full year results. Elsewhere Hammerson is a notable faller after Kleppiere dropped its pursuit for the company. Looking ahead earnings season kicks off with major banks JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup among some of names to report.

Movers

  • Consumer Discretionary [Stora Enso [STERV.FI] +2.9% (Earnings)
  • Industrials [Deutz [DEZ.DE] +7.3% (Earnings) ]
  • Financial [Hammerson [HMSO.UK] -12.5% (Kleppiere drops bid), Hiscox [HSX.UK] -0.7% (Data breach) ]
  • Healthcare [Galapagos [GLPG.BE] +4% (ISABELA Phase 3 program in IPF expected to start dosing in 2H18)]
  • Technology [Sage[SGE.UK] -12%(most since 2001) (Cuts Rev outlook]

Speakers

  • ECB’s Smets (Belgium): Weak inflation remained a lingering concern. Reiterated Council view that prudence, patience and persistence were fully justified. To make policy shifts as predictable as possible
  • Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Dep Gov Floden: Govt should wind down its bonds holdings when monetary policy was normalized. Asset purchases still might be needed in the future
  • Norway Central Bank (Norges) Gov Olsen: Flexible inflation targeting couldn work counter cyclical. High household debt was amplifying effect of a rate rise
  • UK Cabinet gave PM May the go-ahead for Syria strike ‘to deter further use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime
  • Ireland Fin Min Donohoe: GDP growth seen around 3% in coming years. No economic boom at this time
  • Center-right party officials said to have told Italy President Mattarella that Salvini must be made PM
  • Turkey President Chief Adviser Ertem: Treasury did not need to borrow in 2018. Central bank was displaying a decisive stance; steps to reduce FX volatility to be taken
  • Draft of Russia’s response to US sanctions envisaged introduction of restrictions on US goods. Russia govt could expand retaliatory measures in a 2nd reading
  • Philippines Central Bank (BSP) chief Espenilla: 2018 CPI seen at the upper-end of 2-4% target range and decelerate to near 3% in 2019. Mindful of challenges of CPI target and ready to act if necessary
  • China PBoC said to relax informal guidance for commercial banks’ deposit ceiling
  • PBoC official Ruan Jianhong stated that the money supply was moderate. Slowdown due to seasonal and short-term factors
  • Japan and EU said to be signing a trade agreement in mid-July
  • S&P revised Japan outlook from stable to positive; affirmed the Sovereign Rating at A+
  • IEA Monthly Report maintained its 2018 global oil demand growth forecast at 1.5M bpd with global demand seen at 97.8M. Stated that it seemed OPEC/Non-OPEC members have achieved the target of reducing oil stocks to 5-year average

Currencies

  • USD was steady against most pairs aided by higher yields resulting from improved risk appetite
  • USD/JPY was at 6-week highs as the pair moved above the 107.50 level.
  • The GBP/USD saw its 5th straight session of gains with the pair approaching the 1.43 level for 10-week highs. EUR/GBP cross was lower by 0.3% below 0.8640 as dealers noted that the recent ECB minutes should the debate on “normalizing” its policies appeared to be moving at a glacial pace
  • Fixed Income
  • Bund Futures trade 7 ticks lower at 159.18 as European markets trade positive. Upside targets 159.75, while a return lower targets the158.25 level.
  • Gilt futures trade at 121.89 higher by 4 ticks off the highs the seen in early trading. Support continues stands at 121.25 then 120.85, with upside resistance at 123.35 then 123.85.
  • Friday’s liquidity report showed Thursday’s excess liquidity rose to €1.855T from €1.852T prior. Use of the marginal lending facility increased from €142M to €136M.
  • Corporate issuance saw 1 issuer raised $0.6B in the primary market

Looking Ahead

  • 05:30 (ZA) South Africa to sell ZAR600M in I/L 2025, 2029 and 2038 bonds
  • 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell combined £3.0B in 1-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills (£0.5B, £1.0B and £1.5B respectively)
  • 06:30 (IS) Iceland to sell 2022 and 2028 RIKB Bonds
  • 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
  • 07:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserves
  • 08:00 (PL) Poland Feb Current Account: -€0.4Be v +€2.0B prior; Trade Balance: -€0.5Be v -€0.2B prior; Exports: €16.7Be v €16.9B prior; Imports: €17.2Be v €17.1B prior
  • 08:00 (IS) Iceland Mar Unemployment Rate: No est v 2.4% prior
  • 08:00 (BR) Brazil Feb IBGE Services Sector Volume Y/Y: -0.6%e v -1.3% prior
  • 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces upcoming issuance
  • 08:00 (IN) India announces upcoming Bill auction (held on Wed)
  • 08:00 (US) Fed’s Rosengren (moderate, non-voter) on economic outlook
  • 08:05 (UK) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
  • 08:30 (US) Fed’s Bullard (dove, non-voter) speaks at Washington University in St. Louis
  • 09:00 (CA) Canada Mar Existing Home Sales M/M: No est v -6.5% prior
  • 10:00 (US) Feb JOLTS Job Openings: 6.024Me v 6.312M prior
  • 10:00 (US) Apr Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 100.5e v 101.4 prior
  • 11:00 (EU) Potential sovereign ratings after European close (Poland Sovereign Debt to be rated by S&P; Ireland, Spain and USA Sovereign Debt to be rated by Moody’s; Luxembourg Sovereign Debt to be rated by Fitch
  • 13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count data
  • 13:00 (US) Fed’s Kaplan (dove, non-voter)
  • (US) Treasury Semi-annual Currency Report
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