Market Movers ahead
- This week Weekly Focus covers the coming two weeks due to the Danish bank holiday next week.
- In the US, we estimate core CPI for April increased from 2.1 to 2.2% y/y.
- The BoE will meet next week. In lieu of dovish comments and disappointing economic indicators, we think the hike will be postponed to the August meeting.
- On Wednesday 16 May, we will get the final euro area April HICP figures. Core inflation surprised on the downside in April, falling back to 0.7%. We will be looking at the details to determine how much of the decrease was driven by one-offs.
- In Scandies, we have a number of inflation releases coming up. Notably in Sweden, we expect yet another undershooting of the Riksbank’s forecast, although we have raised our forecast for H2 on the back of the recent SEK weakening. In addition, we expect Swedish house prices to show weakness after a few months of stabilisation.
- In Denmark, we expect inflation to have come down even further in April.
Global macro and market themes
- The trade war is still being slowly fought but the coming weeks will be important.
- More signs that growth has peaked but we are not heading for a downturn, in our view.
- The Fed is on autopilot and EUR/USD has moved below the 1.20 mark.
