HomeContributorsTechnical AnalysisForeign Exchange Market Commentary: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD,AUDUSD, GBPCAD, GOLD, WTI CRUDE, DJIA



The EURUSD maintained positive tone on Monday’s holiday-thinned market. The pair regained traction from Asian session low at 1.0601 after repeated failure to clearly penetrate daily Ichimoku cloud (spanned between 1.0621 and 1.0584), which continues to underpin near-term action. Fresh bullish acceleration peaked at 1.0670, retracing the largest part of 1.0677/1.0601 downleg, but failed to regain last week’s high at 1.0677 and open way towards key barrier at 1.0700. Profit-taking at the end of the day dragged the price below important double-Fibonacci barrier at 1.0648 (23.6% of 1.0906/1.0570 descend and 61.8% of 1.0677/1.0601 downleg) and sidelined immediate hopes of stronger recovery. Studies on lower timeframes are bullish and expected to hold positive alignment on close above 1.0630 (daily Tenkan-sen). On the other side, daily technicals are bearish that keeps the downside vulnerable.Stronger bearish signal could be expected on close below initial pivots – daily Tenkan-sen / daily Ichimoku cloud top that would re-expose key supports at 1.0583/70 (daily Ichimoku cloud base / Apr 10 low).

Support: 1.0630, 1.0601, 1.0581, 1.0570
Resistance: 1.0648, 1.0670, 1.0677, 1.0700


USD JPY currency pair took a breather on Monday, on recovery above 109.00 barrier, in attempts above broken 200SMA barrier at 108.81 and signal stronger correction from fresh five-month low at 108.11, posted in early Monday’s trading. The pair is pressured by rising tensions over North Korea, following another missile test and US started bringing their warships in the region that prompted investors into safe-haven Japanese yen. Technical studies are firmly bearish and favour further easing towards next target at 107.86 (Fibonacci 61.8% of 101.18/118.66 rally). Monday’s bounce could be seen as technical correction on oversold conditions and should be ideally capped under 110.00 mark, before bears resume, as long bearish candle of last week (the biggest one-week loss since the third week of July 2016) heavily weighs on markets.

Support: 108.81, 108.56, 108.11, 107.76
Resistance: 109.43, 109.84, 110.00, 110.25


GBPUSD pair held bullish tone on Monday, despite low volumes on extended holiday trading. In eventless session, cable was driven by bullish sentiment and positive technicals and extended recovery from last Thu/Fri higher base at 1.2500, to reach levels close to psychological 1.2600 barrier. Strong bullish setup of daily studies keeps focus at the upside, however, final push towards targets at 1.2615/24 (Mar 27 high/200SMA) could be delayed on overbought conditions. Slow stochastic on daily chart reversed from overbought territory, signalling consolidative/ corrective action which should be ideally contained by hourly Kijun-sen line at 1.2551, to keep intact session low / broken Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.2615/1.2365 at 1.2523. Alternative scenario requires return and break below 1.2500 pivot to revive near-term bears.

Support:1.2551, 1.2523, 1.2500, 1.2480
Resistance: 1.2574, 1.2595, 1.2615, 1.2624


The Aussie dollar remains well supported and extended recovery against its US counterpart on Monday, ending the fourth straight bullish day on rally from 0.7472 base (Apr 10;11;12 lows). Extended correction that retraced over 61.8% of 0.7675/0.7472 descend, peaked at 0.7610 on brief probe above daily Ichimoku cloud top at 0.7605 that was capped by daily Kijun-sen for now. Consolidation under daily cloud top could be anticipated as slow stochastic is overbought on daily chart, with limited downside, ahead of renewed attack at key 0.7600/10 resistance zone. Firm break and close above here is needed to confirm recovery continuation towards target at 0.7679 (Mar 30 high). Broken 200SMA at 0.7551 is expected to contain extended downticks.

Support: 0.7570, 0.7551, 0.7519, 0.7500
Resistance: 0.7605, 0.7610, 0.7630, 0.7640


The GBPCAD cross extended gains on Monday, marking the third consecutive bullish day. Fresh bullish extension peaked at 1.6736 (over 76.4% retracement of 1.6800/1.6515 downleg) and generated strong bullish signal on close above 200SMA at 1.6690 and daily Tenkan-sen line at 1.6657. The latest move higher turned daily technical studies into full bullish setup for final push towards target at 1.6800 (Apr 6 high), with possible extension towards peaks of Mar 27/28 at 1.6888/80. Broken 200SMA is expected to protect the downside, as rising 20SMA is underpinning the action (currently at 1.6665).

Support: 1.6714, 1.6690, 1.6665, 1.6657
Resistance: 1.6736, 1.6762, 1.6800, 1.6880


Spot Gold eased and closed in red on Monday after hitting fresh five-month high at $1295, in early Monday’s trading, on brief probe above weekly Ichimoku cloud top at $1292. The yellow metal remains strongly supported by rising geopolitical tension that triggered risk aversion and strongly increased demand for safe haven gold. Monday’s easing was signalled by overbought daily RSI / slow stochastic, with technical correction expected to ideally find support at above rising hourly Ichimoku cloud (spanned between $1282 and $1275) which underpinned the rally since Apr 11). Final break and close above weekly cloud top is expected to spark acceleration for final attack at psychological $1300 barrier and next target at $1307 (Nov 2 high).

Support: 1281, 1275, 1271, 1265
Resistance: 1292, 1295, 1300, 1307


WTI oil fell further on Monday, extending pullback from fresh five-week high at $53.71, posted on Apr 12, to $52.53 (lowest of Monday). The price eased on overbought technical studies, despite rising geopolitical tensions that usually work in favour of oil price. However, signs the United States continue to increase output undermines OPEC efforts to support oil prices by extended production cut, which so far gave good results as oil price recovered from $47 to nearly $54 per barrel, within short period of time. Firmly bullish technicals remain supportive and favour fresh attempts higher after correction, which should be contained above sideways-moving daily Tenkan-sen line (currently at $51.80).

Support: 52.53, 52.17, 51.80, 51.19
Resistance: 53.18, 53.37, 53.74, 54.50


Dow accelerated strongly on Monday and peaked at 20580 after hitting nearly nine-week low at 20372 in early Monday’s trading. Strong rally left long bullish daily candle that formed Bullish Engulfing pattern, generating reversal signal, after downside attempts were contained by daily Ichimoku cloud base.Recovery needs extension above daily Tenkan-sen line at 20580 which capped Monday’s rally, for further bullish signal, with break above daily Kijun-sen / cloud top trigger (20692/20703), needed to confirm reversal.Hourly cloud (spanned between 20527 and 20487) offers solid support which should contain dips and keep intact key support at 20385 (daily Ichimoku cloud base).

Support: 20527, 20587, 20432, 20385, 20266
Resistance: 20580, 20623, 20692, 20703

Henyep Capital Markets
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