EURUSD doesn’t look active and is not moving in any clear direction. Still, although trade wars are no longer as a strong trigger as before, they have not become less relevant. Now it’s China’s turn, but its government has not taken any measures in response to the US policies yet.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump is still traveling around the political world. He already visited Britain where he spoke hawkish on May and Brexit, which affected pound sterling negatively. Now the US President, as well as the market, is focused on the meeting with the Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
Investors are watching both economic and political news closely, but very calmly. While the market is not that interesting for its participants now, it may save some effort for the future moves that may be caused by a lot of various drivers and triggers.
Thus, today’s evening we’ll be expecting the US retail sales in June. May was a great month for the retail sector, with the figures adding 0.8% MoM, while the automotives were even higher, +0.9%. The markets are now very engaged in watching what could June data reveal. This time the expectations are not that high, just 0.4% in both cases. If these expectations are met or beaten, this may well support the US dollar.
On Tuesday, the manufacturing production is being released, which should confirm current trends.
Technically, the EURUSD is downtrending in the short term, which was caused by the previous uptrend support breakout. This new downtrend already reached the projection channel support and may go further down till another support at 1.1605. However, the pair may start rising again soon, so one should also closely watch the resistance at $1.1715, which, if broken out, may lead the price to the important local highs at $1.1790 and $1.1875.
