The pair is consolidating under new high at 112.80, posted on 13 July, after last week’s strong rally stalled on approach to 2018 high at 113.38 (08 Jan). The price so far holds within tight range, but broader bulls show signs of fatigue and may run out of steam, which signals that the downside is becoming more vulnerable. Slow stochastic and RSI are emerging from overbought territory on daily chart and momentum is turning south, giving initial negative signals. Strong upside rejections in past two days add to fears of deeper pullback, which could be signaled on break below initial pivots at 112.00 (round-figure) and 111.83 (Fibo 38.2% of 110.27/112.80 upleg). Bearish scenario on close below 111.83 pivot would risk extension through 111.48 (rising 10SMA) for attack at next pivotal support at 111.24 (Fibo 61.8%). Conversely, hopes of fresh upside attempts would remain alive while 112.00/111.83 supports hold. Renewed attack at 112.80 high would result in extension towards a cluster of barriers at 113.38 (2018 high) and 113.63/74 (peaks of 21/12 Dec 2017). Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony is in focus for stronger signals, as hawkish tone would offer fresh boost the greenback, while deeper pullback could be anticipated if Fed chief fails to provide stronger signals about further rate hikes.
Res: 112.57, 112.80, 113.38, 113.63
Sup: 112.19, 112.00, 111.83, 111.53
