WTI oil price is holding within tight range on Monday and struggling at strong barriers at $68.60 zone (Fibo 38.2% of $75.34/$64.43 descend / converging 10/55SMA’s) which were cracked on Friday, but without clear break.
Friday’s daily candle with long upper shadow suggests that bulls might be running out of steam. The notion is supported by south-turning 14-d momentum which is forming bear-cross with its 7-d MA and slow stochastic forming bears cross and attempting to reverse from overbought territory.
From the fundamental side, concerns on US-China trade conflict escalation, add to negative outlook, but fears about the impact on US sanctions on Iran’s oil sector, offset negative impact for now.
Near-term action is holding between 55SMA ($68.81) and 30SMA ($67.79), with break of either side needed to generate fresh direction signal.
Bearish scenario on break below 30SMA needs confirmation on extension below 20SMA ($67.34), to risk further weakness.
At the upside, sustained break above $68.60 zone pivots would signal extension of recovery leg from $64.43 (16 Aug low).
Res: 68.81, 69.29, 69.46, 70.15
Sup: 68.33, 67.79, 67.34, 66.64
