The dollar holds firm tone on Wednesday and extends strong recovery of the previous day. Strong Wall St earnings and industrial production boosted dollar, pressuring yen on reduced safe-haven demand. Tuesday’s bullish Outside Day is initial reversal signal, but recovery needs to break above 30SMA (112.51) which so far stays intact and weighs. Recovery needs a catalyst to continue, with FOMC minutes of Sep meeting, due later today, expected to provide fresh signals. Expectations for Fed rate hike in Dec are high (77%) which could provide support to the greenback, with minutes to provide more clues about central bank’s near-future action. On the other side, conflicting daily indicators are lacking firmer direction signals, as slow stochastic is heading north after reversal from oversold zone, while bearish momentum is strengthening. Overall structure is bearish and sees risk of further weakness after limited correction. Negative outlook is expected while 30SMA caps, with stronger bullish signal expected on sustained break above 112.74 (Fibo 38.2% of 114.54/111.62 bear-leg).
Res: 112.42, 112.50, 112.74, 112.95
Sup: 112.15, 111.83, 111.62, 111.36
