Key Highlights
- The US Dollar topped at 1.0124 and declined below 1.0000 against the Swiss Franc.
- USD/CHF traded below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.0045 on the 4-hours chart.
- The Federal Reserve made no change in interest rates from 2.5%.
- The US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 16, 2019 will be released today, which could decline from 229K to 225K.
USDCHF Technical Analysis
This past week, the US Dollar climbed above 1.0100 resistance area against the Swiss Franc. The USD/CHF pair failed to break the 1.0125 level and later started a strong downward move.
Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair topped at 1.0124 and later declined below the 1.0080 and 1.0050 support levels. The recent decline was strong as the pair broke the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.9926 low to 1.0124 high.
There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.0045. Besides, the pair declined below the 1.0000 support, the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours), and 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours).
Clearly, the pair is trading in a bearish zone and it broke a few important supports near 0.9950. If sellers clear the 0.9900 support level, there is a risk of an extended drop towards 0.9880 or 0.9865.
On the upside, the previous support near 0.9980 and the 100 SMA are likely to act as hurdles if the pair starts a recovery from the current levels.
Looking at the other major pairs, EUR/USD extended gains above the 1.1320 level and GBP/USD seems to be facing a strong resistance near the 1.3300 zone.
Economic Releases to Watch Today
- UK Retail Sales for Feb 2019 (YoY) – Forecast +3.3%, versus +4.2% previous.
- UK Retail Sales for Feb 2019 (MoM) – Forecast -0.4%, versus +1.2% previous.
- BoE Interest Rate Decision – Forecast 0.75%, versus 0.75% previous.
- US Initial Jobless Claims – Forecast 225K, versus 229K previous.
