The Australian dollar regained traction and bounced from near-term base at 0.6913, after weaker than expected Australian housing data had no negative impact.
Near-term price action remains congested for the fourth straight day, limited from the downside by 0.6913 (Fibo 23.6% of 0.7068/0.6864) while falling 20SMA (0.6937) caps, guarding upper pivot at 0.6942 (Fibo 38.2% of 0.7068/0.6864).
Flat momentum and mixed setup of daily MA’s (5,10,20) supports near-term neutral tone, which needs break of either side of congestion to generate fresh direction signal.
Sustained break below congestion floor, reinforced by 10SMA (0.6905) would generate negative signal and risk retest of key support of 0.6864, where the base is forming.
Bullish scenario requires close above 20SMA and 0.6942 Fibo barrier to signal extension of recovery from 0.6864 base.
Res: 0.6937, 0.6942, 0.6966, 0.6990
Sup: 0.6913, 0.6904, 0.6881, 0.6864
