AUDUSD drifted lower after hitting a three-month high of 0.7081, slightly above the 50% Fibonacci level of the steep downleg from 0.7392 to 0.6745.
The bearish move has driven the price back into the Ichimoku cloud and below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA), increasing speculation that the softness may stay in place in the short-term. Meanwhile in momentum indicators, the signals are neutral-to-negative as the RSI is exiting the bullish territory, while the MACD seems to be losing ground below its red signal line.
The 50-day SMA currently around 0.6950 is likely to be the next target if the market extends the slowdown, but the area around 0.6909 should be a bigger challenge since any close lower would fade hopes over an up-trending market. Further down, the bears would have to forcefully beat the 0.6864 barrier to confirm additional losses ahead.
Should the price bounce above the 20-day SMA and the 0.7000 round level, immediate resistance could be detected within the 0.7045-0.7068 area. Traders, however, would be eagerly looking for a rally above the 200-day SMA (0.7087), a move that could elevate the price towards the 0.7150 number.
In the medium-term timeframe, AUDUSD is in consolidation within the 0.7200-0.6830 boundaries. The flattening 50- and 200-day SMAs provide little hope for an outlook reversal.
In brief, the short-term bias for AUDUSD is viewed as neutral-to-bearish, while the medium-term outlook continues to hold neutral.
