GBPJPY is in the process of pushing above the converged simple moving averages (SMAs) and upper Bollinger band around the 143.10 area. That said, the pair remains range bound – backed by the narrowing in the Bollinger bands – since 23 December 2019, between the 140.82 and 144.60 boundaries.
The short-term oscillators support the very near-term improving picture. The MACD is above its red trigger line and has marginally creeped above the zero line, while the RSI is rising in the bullish region. Moreover, the Stochastics bullish nature continues in the overbought section.
Overrunning the 200-period SMA at 143.10, the nearby 143.60 level, which is the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from 148.86 to 126.53 could prevent the pair from reaching the upper boundary of the range at 144.60. A break above could see the price rally towards the 146.80 swing high from December 16 ahead of the nine-month peak of 147.95.
If sellers reverse the price below the 50-period SMA at 142.82, the next level to test the push down is the mid-Bollinger band at 142.06 and the lower-band at 141.32 prior to the lower boundary at 140.82. Diving under the 140.82 support, the 61.8% Fibo of 140.34 could challenge bears’ efforts for further declines towards the 138.85 low.
Overall, the short-term bias is neutral, slightly leaning to the positive outlook. Nevertheless, a break either above 144.60 or below 140.82 would reveal the next direction.
