GBPJPY yesterday bounced off the 20- and 50-period simple moving average (SMAs) and jumped above the flattened 200-period SMA. The fresh improvement in the price – within the one-month trading range from 140.82 to 144.60 – was soon stalled around a previous high beneath the 143.60 level, which is the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the down move from 148.86 to 126.53.
The short-term oscillators reflect conflicting signals. The MACD is increasing above its red trigger line in the positive zone, while the RSI is falling from the 70 level. Moreover, the Stochastic lines completed a bearish cross at the 80 overbought mark.
To the upside, immediate resistance could come from the 76.4% Fibo of 143.60 ahead of testing the area of upper boundaries – from 144.38 to 144.60 – restricting appreciation in the pair. Surpassing these, the 145.44 obstacle could deter the climb towards the 146.80 swing high of December 16, before the nine-month peak challenges bulls’ efforts to reach the higher levels.
Otherwise, if sellers manage to push back down, the current area of the SMAs from 142.70 to 142.37 and the nearby low of 142.13, could be first to apply some friction. Moving south, the 141.22 hurdle and the 140.82 lower boundary could prevent the pair steering for the 61.8% Fibo of 140.33. Clearing these, a dive towards the 138.85 key trough could draw traders’ focus.
Summarizing, the short-term bias is flat, while the very short-term picture could still reflect some optimism. That said, a break above 144.60 or below 140.82 would be needed to clear up the next direction.