The dollar keeps bullish tone although the action after release of US jobs data is holding with quite narrow congestion as markets digest the shocking release. Again, there was no big surprise on seven times more negative payrolls data than expected (Mar -701K vs -100K f/c) as today’s release comes as logical continuation of Thursday’s strong rise in jobless claims. The numbers reflect the depth of crisis in America on coronavirus pandemic, with fears that this is just the beginning and the worst is yet to come. The US economy strongly reduced a number of jobs in March, signaling an end of record, nearly a decade-long growth, in which the US employment reached its full capacity. Today’s numbers, along with Thursday’s claims figure generate strong signal that the USA is entering recession. The fact that today’s figure is far from accurate as survey was made in mid-March, adds to growing fears that the situation is even worse. The greenback is expected to keep its strong safe-haven appeal in situation of strong uncertainty and to rise further against its major world counterparts. The index generated bullish signal on today’s break above pivotal barriers provided by 10DMA and Fibo 38.2% of 103.79/98.33 (100.23/42 respectively) which will require confirmation on daily close above these levels. Rising bullish momentum and MA’s in full bullish setup on daily chart, support scenario.
Res: 101.06; 101.70; 102.09; 102.50
Sup: 100.42; 100.23; 100.00; 99.62