EURUSD seems to be oversold, confirmed from the stochastic oscillator, suggesting a possible upside retracement in the 4-hour chart. However, the 20- and 40-period simple moving averages (SMAs) are ready for a bearish cross and the MACD oscillator is lacking direction as it remains flat slightly above the zero line.
In case of steeper increases and a jump above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward wave from 1.1145 to 1.0730 at 1.0825, which overlaps with the SMAs, this could open the door for the 38.2% Fibonacci at 1.0887. Above that, the 50.0% Fibo at 1.0935 and the 61.8% Fibo at 1.0985 could attract attention.
Alternatively, a decline beneath the 1.0783 level could find immediate support at the 1.0765 area. Breaking this zone, the 1.0730 level next, while underneath this level the pair could flirt with the three-year low of 1.0630.
In the bigger picture, the pair looks to be in a neutral area from March 30 with any bearish action below 1.0636 create negative tendency, though a climb above 1.1145 could turn the bias to bullish.
