AUDJPY maintains a clear uptrend in the short-term picture, well supported by an ascending trendline, but now must face the 0.7150 level and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which appeared a strong resistance this week, to continue the bullish retracement of the virus-led sell-off.
The RSI and the MACD are currently reflecting a weakening positive bias as the indicators seem to be losing steam. Hence, should the price further decelerate, the 70.20 level, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci of the down leg from 76.52 to 59.85, with the help of the upward-sloping trendline near 70.00, could buffer the move in order to keep the focus on the upside. In case sellers persist, the door would open for the 68.23-67.60 supportive zone, a break of which would wreck the uptrend and stimulate the bears towards the 38.2% Fibonacci of 66.26.
On the flip side, if the bulls close decisively above the 200-day SMA and the 72.40 barrier, the market may accelerate towards the February high of 74.45, switching the medium-term profile from bearish to neutral as well. Running higher, the price could see some consolidation near 75.60 before meeting the 76.52 top.
In brief, AUDJPY may trade at a softer pace in the short-term, where a break below 70.00 could trigger a steeper decline. Otherwise, a closing price above 72.40 could add more legs to the rally.
