AUDJPY retreated recently after touching a one-year high near 76.80, but the pair found fresh buy orders at 72.70 and rebounded again. The structure of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart remains intact, and the price is still trading above a three-month upside support line. If the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crosses above the 200-day one soon, completing a so-called ‘golden cross’, that would be another bullish signal.
Short-term oscillators like the RSI and the MACD detect positive momentum, suggesting that the latest move higher might continue for now.
If the bulls drive the battle back above 74.40, their next target may be the 75.60 zone, which is more visible on the four-hour chart. A move above would bring the 76.80 region into scope. If violated too, the focus would turn to 77.50, which acted as support multiple times back in early 2019 and may now provide resistance.
If sellers retake the wheel, they would first aim for the crossroads of 72.70 and the aforementioned upside support line. A bearish break of that crucial intersection could signal that the positive mood is fading, bringing the 200-day SMA near 72.10 into play. Even lower, it would be up to the 71.10 level – which is fortified by the 50-day SMA – to halt further declines.
In short, the picture is still bullish despite the latest retreat. A break beneath 72.70 and the upside support line is needed to call that into question.
