EURUSD has been in a range for a couple of weeks now with the price currently capped by the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) and the 1.1268 level, that being the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the up leg from 1.0773 to 1.1421. The stalled Ichimoku lines and the flattened state within the 40- and 100-period SMAs further sponsor a horizontal picture.
Although the short-term oscillators are skewed marginally to the upside, it is on the back of weak momentum for the moment. Thus, with the stochastic oscillator flirting around the 80 level, a pullback cannot be ruled out for now. The MACD is above its red trigger line and has jumped slightly above zero, while the RSI crawls up from its 50 level.
In a positive scenario, immediate upside restraints may come from the 100-period SMA at the 23.6% Fibo of 1.1268, ahead of the 1.1325 high and the ceiling of the range at 1.1353. Should buying interest intensify, the 1.1400 handle could attract attention ahead of the three-month peak of 1.1421. Conquering the top of 1.1421, buyers may target the 1.1484 high achieved on March 9 of 2020.
Otherwise, the price could face initial support sinking to the bottom of the cloud at 1.1243, where the 40-period SMA currently lies. A step underneath could trip at the Ichimoku lines around 1.1230, before dipping towards a tougher support trench from 1.1184 to 1.1153. This region contains the 38.2% Fibo of 1.1174 and the floor of the range at 1.1167, which overlaps with the 200-period SMA. Should this fortified section fail to halt steeper declines, the pair may move to meet the 50.0% Fibo of 1.1097 and the 1.1080 trough.
Overall, the very short-term timeframe remains neutral-to-bullish above the 1.1153 mark, and while a close above 1.1353 would reignite optimism, a close above 1.1421 would cement the resumption of the positive picture. Yet a break below 1.1153 would see negative tensions strengthen.
