USDCHF is currently struggling with the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) at the 0.9139 barrier, after jumping above the very-short-term descending line drawn from 0.9239. That said, the flat blue Kijun-sen line and the levelling out of the bearish 50- and 100-period SMAs suggest that a sideways pattern may be developing.
The short-term oscillators are reflecting conflicting signals of momentum, backing a directionless market. The MACD, in the positive area, holds above its red trigger line, while the stochastic oscillator zigzags mid-way, displaying weakness. Yet, the RSI is dwindling in the positive section.
In order for a positive picture to gain confidence, a sustained push from buyers would initially need to conquer the 200-period SMA at 0.9139, subsequently violating the 0.9161, 0.9197 and 0.9239 highs of the latest bearish structure. Succeeding, buyers may then meet the 0.9260 high and the 0.9300 handle before sending the pair to challenge the tough 0.9350 – 0.9361 resistance band formed around July.
Otherwise, if selling interest intensifies, initial limitations may arise from the 0.9069 – 0.9100 hardened support zone. Diving under these congested barriers, involving the diagonal line, 50- and 100-period SMAs plus the Ichimoku cloud and blue Kijun-sen line, the bears may sink to test the 67-month low of 0.8997. Steeper losses may steer for the 0.8933 trough from January 2015 before focusing on the 0.8908 level, which is the 138.2% Fibonacci extension of the up leg from 0.9182 to 0.9900.
Summarizing, USDCHF maintains a broader negative picture, while the bearish short-term bias appears to be slipping into a neutral phase. A clearer direction would be revealed with a break above 0.9239 or below 0.8997.
