USDJPY has been trading within a symmetrical triangle since July 31 and is currently testing the ascending line of the pattern and the lower Bollinger band. The RSI indicator is falling in the negative territory, while the stochastic is approaching the oversold zone with strong momentum. The short-term simple moving averages (SMAs) are acting as strong resistance for the bulls.
If there is a rebound around the 105.90 level and the uptrend line, the pair would need to overcome the moving averages around 106.05 – 106.15 to touch the upper Bollinger band at 106.27. A successful climb above the descending line could meet resistance at the 106.54 – 106.65 zone ahead of the 106.93 barrier, shifting the bias to slightly bullish.
Alternatively, a decline below the 105.78 support level could drive the market until the 105.10 – 105.229 area, switching the outlook to bearish. More downside pressure could find the next target at the 104.18 hurdle.
Overall, USDJPY has been lacking a clear direction over the last couple of months and a closure below the ascending trend line would give the upper hand to the bears.