EURUSD appears to have adopted a negative trajectory, after a near two-month gradual easing in its ascent, breaking below all simple moving averages (SMAs) and the Ichimoku cloud. The downward sloping 20- and 100-period SMAs and their bearish crossovers of the 200-period SMA may aid in dampening the pair further. Furthermore, the falling Ichimoku lines also suggest negative momentum is increasing.
In terms of sentiment, the short-term oscillators currently back the weakening picture. The MACD, in the negative region, is holding below its red trigger line, while the RSI is bouncing on the 30 level. The stochastic lines, although again in oversold zones, are plotting higher lows, showing a willingness to turn bullish. Nonetheless, the flattening in the MACD and the positive divergence in the RSI and the stochastic oscillator may see the price recoup some ground, testing the stubbornness of sellers.
If selling interest persists, initial support may come from the inside swing high of 1.1626 from July 23. Dipping deeper, a key low at 1.1580 could attempt to dismiss further loss of ground. Should it fail to do so, steeper declines may target the 1.1540 and 1.1506 troughs ahead of the 1.1496 barrier.
Otherwise, if buyers resurface, early resistance may stem from the 1.1679 obstacle, coupled with the red Tenkan-sen line. A jump above could then meet the 1.1719 high, where the 20-period SMA also provides weight. If buying interest improves further, some hindrance may come from the blue Kijun-sen line at 1.1756 and the 1.1774 border. Overcoming this, the pair may encounter a tough section from the cloud’s lower band, presently at 1.1751 to the 1.1826 barrier, which also includes the 100- and 200-period SMAs.
Summarizing, EURUSD seems to be correcting downwards, though a close below 1.1626 is required to reinforce the negative move. On the flipside, shifting above the 1.1871 – 1.1916 zone could build confidence again.
