NZDUSD’s fresh upward pivot from 0.6510 has been dismissed by the mid-Bollinger band at 0.6574, which has reset the negative direction, with the price now tackling the 0.6539 barrier. The diving 50- and 100-period simple moving averages’ (SMAs) negative demeanour and their forthcoming bearish overlaps of the 200-period SMA, may further aid a weakening bias.

The short-term oscillators back a deteriorating picture. The MACD, far below zero, although above its red signal line appears to be waning, while the dipping RSI points towards the 30 mark. Moreover, the stochastics %K line has rebounded off the 80-level and under the %D line, providing negative backing towards further declines.

If intense selling interest resumes, initial support may arise from the 0.6539 barrier ahead of the key pullback’s low at 0.6510. Steeper losses may then reach the critical 0.6487 trough, where the lower Bollinger band also resides. Should sellers conquer the lower Bollinger band, the price may sink towards the 0.6458 and 0.6439 lows from early July. Plummeting from here, the bears may target the 0.6384 upper boundary of a base from June 30.

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Otherwise, if buyers breach the capping mid-Bollinger band at 0.6574, early tough resistance may develop from the section of 0.6591 to 0.6600. Gaining more ground, another heavy limiting zone from 0.6638 to 0.6651, which encapsulates the 200-period SMA at 0.6640, may attempt to terminate the climb. However, if the bulls triumph above this resistance area, they may then challenge the 50- and 100-period SMAs, in the vicinity of the upper Bollinger band around 0.6665, and the 0.6674 obstacle, before tackling the 0.6689 high.

In brief, the short-term picture looks increasingly neutral-to-bearish below 0.6600 and the SMAs. A break below 0.6487 would confirm negative worries.


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