The USDTRY surged to new all-time high at 7.8592 on Monday, as conflict in Caucasus, on Turkey’s border, revived negative sentiment and pushed lira further down.

The unexpected action from CBRT last week, when the central bank increased interest rate by 2% to 10.25%, provided short relief to lira, as two-day dips after rate hike were contained by psychological 7.50 support and rising 20DMA.

Lira came under fresh pressure on intensifying conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which could easily spread into the region and spark much bigger conflict.

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Negative fundamentals and rising geopolitical tensions could push lira much lower, as fresh extension higher approached target at 7.8619 (Fibo 138.2% projection of the upleg from 5.1323 (29 Nov 2018 trough) and unmasked psychological 8.0000 barrier.

Rising 10DMA (7.6174) continues to track advance and marks solid support which is expected to keep the downside protected.

Res: 7.8619; 7.9000; 8.0000; 8.0923
Sup: 7.7160; 7.6496; 7.6174; 7.5309

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