GBPAUD appears to be stalling ahead of the 4½-month high of 1.8525, something also reflected in the unclear and merged Ichimoku lines. The recent foothold on the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at 1.8216 shot the price above the Ichimoku cloud, preserving the neutral-to-bullish outlook, also backed by the rising SMAs.
The short-term oscillators transmit conflicting signals in directional momentum. The MACD is stalling its positive pace above its red trigger line in the positive region, while the falling RSI is retreating from the 70 level. In the stochastic oscillator, the %K line has dipped beneath its %D line and the 80 level, promoting a bearish tone and a price pullback.
If the price continues to deteriorate, immediate defences may develop from the cloud’s upper surface and the adjacent 1.8384 low. Dipping into the cloud the 50-peroiod SMA fused with the Ichimoku lines at 1.8355, and the 1.8326 barrier, may attempt to impede further fading towards the 100-period SMA residing at the floor of the cloud at 1.8242. Should steeper declines breach even the critical support band of 1.8196 – 1.8216, the pair could dive for the 1.8139 trough and the 200-period SMA at 1.8080.
If buyers re-emerge, initial resistance may come from the 1.8493 high and the nearby 1.8525 peak. Overrunning these tough boundaries, the pair may jump to meet a region of highs of 1.8626 – 1.8665 from the end of May. Sustaining the climb, the bulls may then eye the 1.8719 mark before aiming for the 1.8760 peak.
Overall, GBPAUD seems to be shifting into a ranging market between 1.8216 and 1.8525 in the short-term timeframe. Violations of these boundaries may set a clearer direction.
