Thu, Sep 23, 2021 @ 06:13 GMT
HomeContributorsTechnical AnalysisMarket Morning Briefing: Euro Has Dipped Today

Market Morning Briefing: Euro Has Dipped Today

STOCKS

Equities continue to show lack of strength and keep the possibility of seeing a dip within their sideways range in the near-term. Dow is holding below 34500 itself and can dip to 34000-33500. DAX has to rise past 15800 to gain momentum for further rise. Nikkei can dip to 28500-28000 while below 29000. Shanghai can fall towards the lower end of its 3500-3625 range. Sensex and Nifty can also fall within their 52000/51000-53000 and 15600/15400-15900 range in the coming days while they remain below 53000 and 15900 respectively.

Dow (34292.29, +9.02, +0.03%) seems to be lacking strength to break 34500 itself. This increases the chances of seeing a fall towards 33500 in the coming days. As such the break above the 34700-35000 resistance zone is not happening immediately.

DAX (15690.59, +136.41, +0.88%) has risen above 15600 and need to be seen if it can sustain above it and move further up towards 15800. A break above 15800 will then pave way for a fresh rise to 16000-16100. While 15800 holds, DAX can remain in the 15400-15800 range for some more time.

Nikkei (28807.49, −5.12, -0.018%) remains below 29000 and is under pressure to test 28500-28000 on the downside which in turn will delay the rise to 29500-30000 that we were expecting. As mentioned yesterday, 28000 is a crucial support which is likely to hold and keep the long-term uptrend intact. A strong break below 28000 is needed to bring the danger of seeing 27000-26000 into the picture.

Shanghai (3576.86, +3.68, +0.10%) remains lower and can dip towards 3550-3500 in the coming days. 3500-3625 range remains intact for now. The rise to 3700-3800 is getting delayed. In case if Shanghai breaks below 3500, an extended fall to 3450-3400 is possible before the rise to 3700-3800 happens.

Sensex (52549.66, −185.93, -0.35%) and Nifty (15748.45, −66.25, -0.42%) have come down further. The break above 53000 (Sensex) and 15900 (Nifty) seems not to be happening immediately. A dip to 52000 (Sensex) and 15700/15600 (Nifty) looks likely now. As mentioned yesterday, 52000-53000 (narrow) or 51000-53000 (broad) on Sensex and 15600/700-15900 (narrow) or 15400-15900 (broad) on Nifty can be the possible range that can be seen while the indices remain below 53000 and 15900 respectively.

COMMODITIES

Commodities look mixed and stable with narrow movements. Gold has fallen and trades near crucial support at 1760 which needs to hold and produce a bounce to rise towards 1780-1800 else a fall to 1740/20 could come into the picture. Silver trades within 25.80-26.50 while Copper too is ranged within 4.10-4.40/50. Crude prices have risen slightly and may head towards respective resistances in the near term.

Brent (74.73) has bounced from an intra-day low of 73.39 yesterday and is headed towards $75-77 resistance zone again. But the movement has been somewhat slow compared to the sharper upmove seen in WTI (73.53) that is headed towards $75 again. We continue to look for a possible test of resistances on Crude prices before falling off fro there. On Brent, we look for a maximum upside of $80 within the current upmove as $80 is a super crucial resistance in the near term.

Gold (1764.60) has fallen further from levels above 1770 seen yesterday. Watch price action near 1760 as a break below 1760 can open doors for a fall towards 1740/20. A sustained rise above 1780 is needed to take the price up towards 1800 or higher. Price action near 1760 is important.

Silver (25.98) has come down slightly but is still trading within the range of 25.80-26.50 mentioned yesterday. Silver can continue to consolidate in the mentioned range for some more time before we see a break on either side. Broad range of 25-27 continues to hold.

Copper (4.2795) continues to trade within 4.10-4.40/50 which could hold for the medium term. Within the range if the price falls from 4.30, a test of 4.10 can be initially seen.

FOREX

Dollar Index and Euro looks stable and movement near current levels need a close watch. Watch support near 1.1860 on Euro today to see if it holds or not while 92 on Dollar Index is important. Aussie, Pound and EURPY looks stable and may remain quiet for the next few sessions. USDJPY is stable too and can rise towards 111 or higher while downside is limited to 110-109.50. USDCNY can rise while above 6.4470/80 and move up towards 6.46/48. USDINR can break out on either side to head towards 74.60/75-75.00 or 74.0-73.80. Watch price action near current levels.

Dollar Index (92.027) trades above 92 just now and needs to see if it sustains to move higher towards 93 or falls off from here itself to head towards 91.50-91.00 in the near term. Watch price action near 92 over the next 1-2 sessions.

Euro (1.1904) has dipped today and can test immediate support near 1.1860 which needs to hold in order to keep the upside momentum intact for the near term. Failure to sustain above 1.1860 would pave way for a fall towards 1.1830-1.1800 soon.

EURJPY (131.53) has bounced slightly and may rise to test 132 before again falling off from there. Our earlier expected fall to 131.50 has been seen.

Dollar-Yen (110.46) is stable and continues to be headed towards 111+ while downside is limited to 110-109.50.

Aussie (0.7520) has dipped further and may test 0.7470 before a possible rise towards 0.76 in the longer run. Immediate view is bearish towards 0.75-0.7470 before a bounce sets in.

Pound (1.3855) has bounced and while above 1.38, we may expect a rise towards 1.39 or higher.

USDCNY (6.4569) is bullish while above 6.4480 and while that holds, an eventual rise to 6.46/48 is on the cards for the near term.

USDINR (74.2250) has been trading within a small narrow range for 4-sessions and could be gearing up for a sharp rise possibly towards 74.60-84.75-75.00 on the upside. While below 74.30, we may have fair scope on the near term charts for a dip to 74.0-73.80. Watch price action near current levels to see which way the pair breaks from here.

INTEREST RATES

The US Treasury yields remain stable. Our view of seeing a broad sideways range for a few weeks remains intact. We expect this range to break on the downside eventually over the medium-term. German yields have bounced slightly and are likely to see a rise in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI has come-off after testing the upper end of its 6%-6.06% range. It can now move down towards the lower end of this range in the coming days.

The US 2Yr (0.25%), 5Yr (0.89%), 10Yr (1.47%) and 30Yr (2.09%) Treasury yields remain stable. Our view remains the same. A broad sideways consolidation is possible for a few weeks. 1.4%-1.6% (narrow) or 1.3%-1.7% (broad) on the 10Yr and 1.9%-2.25% on the 30Yr can be the possible range of trade. Our bias is bearish to see a downside break of this range going forward.

The German 2Yr (-0.66%) remains stable while the 5Yr (-0.56%), 10Yr (-0.17%), 30Yr (0.33%) yields have bounced slightly. While above the supports at 0.30% (10Yr) and 0.25% (30Yr) the outlook is bullish. We expect a rise to -0.10% and 0% (10Yr), 0.40% and 0.55% (30Yr) in the coming weeks.

The 10Yr GoI (6.0364%) has come-off sharply yesterday. The range resistance at 6.06% has held very well. The 6%-6.06% sideways range remains intact. A dip to 6.02%-6% within this range is possible in the coming days.

 

Kshitij Consultancy Servicehttp://www.kshitij.com
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsibly for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

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