AUDJPY has been tracing the upper Bollinger band for two weeks now, reaching a more than 3½-year high of 86.24, as the pair aims for the 86.72 barrier. The price rally, which extended above the simple moving averages (SMAs) and the 82.00 handle, accelerated from the 79.88 level until the fresh high, before sellers made an appearance. The recent uptrend is not subsiding despite opposing forces, something also being demonstrated in the abated negative bearing of the 100-day SMA and the upturn in the 50-day SMA.
The short-term oscillators have yet to confirm a dry up in positive impetus. The MACD is soaring over its red trigger line, in the positive section, while the RSI, although having dipped, is persisting in overbought territory. Currently, the stochastic oscillator is not indicating a clear price preference as the oscillator’s %K and %D lines are hovering above the 80 level.
If sellers start to make a clear comeback, the pullback in the pair could snag at the 85.00 handle. However, if the pair fails to find support here, the price may seek footing around the 84.29 barrier. If this border also disappoints, the price could pursue the region of support between the 82.80 obstacle and the 200-day SMA at 82.55. Should sellers remain devoted, the next support barriers are the 100-day SMA at 81.83 and the 50-day SMA at 81.11.
If buyers regain control and drive the pair beyond the fresh multi-year high and the upper Bollinger band at 86.33, initial resistance could arise from the 86.72 high. Then, nearby is the resistance band of 87.20-87.45. Moving higher, the 88.00 hurdle could impede the pair from challenging the 88.49 high and the 89.07 level, being a double top back in January 2018.
Summarizing, AUDJPY’s positive tone may remain intact should the price persist above the 85.00 level and the 84.29 low. A break above 86.72 could nourish upside momentum, while a retreat below 84.29 could result in a deeper price retracement.