AUDUSD sellers managed to seize command in the pair two days ago and successfully push the price back underneath the 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The bears are currently attempting to extend this recent drop in the price below the Ichimoku cloud, around the 0.7283 level. The 200-day SMA has aimed slightly lower showing price’s preference to the downside, while the negative bearing of the 100-day SMA and the deflection off it by the 50-day SMA, together suggest that the bullish drive is not substantial enough to overwhelm the negative trend.
The short-term oscillators are skewed to the downside. The MACD has distanced itself below its red trigger line and has just dipped below the zero threshold, while the RSI is falling in bearish territory. The strong negative charge exhibited in the stochastic oscillator is promoting further negative price action.
Should sellers manage to stay in control and drive the price below the Ichimoku cloud at 0.7283, bearish limitations could then transpire from the 0.7225 barrier and the neighbouring 0.7169 low. If the decline gains extra downward momentum, the 9½-month trough from August 20 may come into focus. In the event bearish forces continue to overwhelm, the next support could develop in the region of 0.6963-0.7020.
However, if the cloud suppresses the negative powers and buyers find positive traction, the merged 50- and 100-day SMAs at 0.7370 may provide the first border for buyers to overcome. Pushing higher, the converged Ichimoku lines could delay the test of the 0.7431 and 0.7470 nearby highs. Conquering these obstacles, buyers may then propel the price to challenge the 0.7531-0.7555 resistance ceiling, reinforced by the 200-day SMA. Successfully reviving upside impetus would then turn traders’ focus to the 0.7589-0.7645 resistance barricade.
Summarizing, AUDUSD is exhibiting a strong bearish tone below the SMAs and the 0.7431 high. A decline below the 0.6963-0.7020 support would be needed to definitively bolster negative tendencies. Yet, a jump above the 0.7589-0.7645 boundary is essential to strengthen the bullish bias.
