Gold remains trapped below the 1,800 boundary and the support-turned resistance trendline despite the quick bounce off the more-than-two-month low of 1,752.
The 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1,680 – 1,877 upleg are making any breakout around the 1,800 threshold more essential, but bullish signals are not really convincing yet, reflecting some cautiousness among traders instead. Particularly, the RSI has shifted to the sidelines after barely crossing above its 50 neutral mark, the MACD continues to gain ground within the negative area and above its red signal line, while the Stochastics are approaching their 80 overbought level.
Should buying pressures dominate, the precious metal could speed up towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of 1,830, while within breathing distance, the tentative descending trendline stretched from the record high of 2,079 may attract some interest ahead of the 1,877 peak. Beyond the latter, the rally could tease the 1,900 – 1,916 key resistance zone with scope to upgrade the neutral medium-term outlook.
In the event of a downside reversal, the bears may push for a close below the 50% Fibonacci and the 1,700 bar again. If their efforts prove successful this time, the price could tumble towards the 61.8% Fibonacci of 1,745, while a break below the swing low of 1,722, where the 78.6% Fibonacci is placed, could provide direct access to the 1,680 bottom.
Summarizing, although the short-term risk is skewed to the upside, the precious metal will need to close confidently above the 1,800 mark to motivate fresh bullish actions.
