GBPJPY has stabilized around the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), currently within the Ichimoku cloud, after the latest pullback from the more than five-year ceiling recorded a rebound off the 200-day SMA, which overlaps with the Ichimoku cloud’s floor. That said, the SMAs continue to endorse a neutral-to-bullish trend preference in the pair.
The blue Kijun-sen line has yet to confirm that bearish forces are dominating, while the red Tenkan-sen line reflects the recent pickup in downward pressure. The short-term oscillators are mirroring the recent dip in the pair, not hinting of any current shift in momentum to the upside. The MACD, below its red trigger line, is testing the zero threshold, while the RSI’s downward trajectory is intact. The negative charge of the stochastic oscillator looks to be under question, but the %K line is falling again.
If the pair steers lower from the 100-day SMA at 154.40, preliminary tough support could arise at the cloud’s floor at 153.36, where the 200-day SMA also resides. Dipping beneath the 200-day SMA may confirm bearish forces are amping up again, which could cheer sellers to challenge the support border of 152.62-152.89. If the price retreats further and the 151.71 barrier fails to impede downward pressures, the price may then pursue the 148.51-149.41 support base, which has held since March 2021.
Alternatively, if the downside rejection from yesterday is a hint that the pair is regaining buoyancy, a clear nudge above the 100-day SMA at 154.40 may encourage buyers to tackle the 155.12-155.47 critical resistance zone, which begins from the cloud’s upper band. Successfully overstepping it, the bulls could then propel toward the 156.77 and 157.28 nearby highs before they take a crack at the 157.46-158.20 key ceiling, which has capped advances since October 2021. However, conquering this obstacle, buyers may then target the 160.09 high, where the price collapsed back in June 2016.
Summarizing, GBPJPY is exhibiting a bearish mood below the 157.46-158.20 resistance boundary and a price dive extending below the 200-day SMA and the 152.89 trough could reinforce negative tendencies. Yet, the broader bullish structure remains active above the 148.51-149.41 base.
