AUDJPY is tiptoeing beneath the established 93.85-94.30 resistance barricade that has muted positive developments ever since the pair corrected to the 91.00 level, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the 80.36-94.30 up leg. Nonetheless, the bullish simple moving averages (SMAs) continue to defend the two-and-a-half-month uptrend from 80.36, which is finding some difficulty in reigniting upside momentum beyond the 6¾-year high.
Currently, the neutral Ichimoku lines are suggesting that positive driving forces have dried up, while the short-term oscillators are reflecting a mild increase in negative momentum. The MACD, north of the zero threshold, is gliding underneath its red trigger line, while the falling RSI has just pierced below the 50 level. Moreover, the negative charge in the stochastic oscillator has returned, promoting bearish moves in the pair. However, the fact that price volatility is subdued as the price is weighing on the 50-period SMA, hints that downward moves lack credibility for now.
In the negative scenario, sellers face an immediate reinforced support section between the 50- and 100-period SMAs at 93.12 and 92.38 respectively. If this region that encapsulates the Ichimoku cloud fails to provide buyers with renewed positive traction, the price may then sink towards the 91.55 low before the bears target a support base highlighted by the 23.6% Fibo of 91.00, and the 90.74 trough from March 31. A deeper retreat in the pair could strengthen negative tendencies, setting the premise for a price drop towards the 38.2% Fibo of 89.00, where the rising 200-period SMA currently resides.
Alternatively, if the price lifts off the 50-period SMA at 93.12 and over the red Tenkan-sen line at 93.39, buyers could rechallenge the 93.85-94.30 critical resistance boundary. In the event the pair navigates successfully beyond the multi-year high of 94.30, the bulls could then pilot for the 95.13 and the 95.64 barriers, which happen to be the 123.6% and the 138.2% Fibonacci extension levels of the price correction from 94.30 until the 90.74 trough.
Summarizing, AUDJPY is sustaining a neutral-to-bullish bias north of the 50- and 100-period SMAs, the cloud, and the 23.6% Fibo of 91.00. That said, a dive in the price below the March 31 trough of 90.74 could accelerate the pair’s downward trajectory.
