Early in another week of October, the major currency pair is falling. At the moment, EUR/USD is balancing around 0.9720.
Global capital markets are trying to escape risks amid recession concerns and this fact makes the “greenback” attractive again. On the other hand, the Euro is getting a huge hit from external economic stress – the upcoming heating season in Europe and many problems around it.
Last Friday’s statistics on the US labour market in September turned out to be better than expected. As a result, the US FOMC has a good reason to continue tightening its monetary policy – the employment sector is stable.
The Unemployment Rate dropped from 3.7% in August to 3.5% in September, while the Non-Farm Payrolls shoed 263K against the expected reading of 248K.
In the H4 chart, after rebounding from 0.9990, EUR/USD is forming a new descending wave towards 0.9360; right now, it is forming the first structure of this wave with the predicted target at 0.9680 and may later consolidate there. In the future, the asset may break the range to the downside and resume falling to reach 0.9360. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: having broken 0 downwards, its signal line continues falling to update the lows.
As we can see in the H1 chart, having finished the descending structure at 0.9815 and forming a new consolidation range there, EUR/USD has broken it downwards; right now, it is still falling and forming another descending structure towards 0.9700. After that, the instrument may start a new correction to test 0.9815 from below and then resume falling with the target at 0.9630. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is falling towards 20.
