The dollar index remains constructive in early Thursday’s trading, following Wednesday’s 0.65% bounce (the first bullish close after three days of heavy losses), after the action was repeatedly rejected at ley support at 109.35 (Oct 27 low) and also failed to register a clear break below the base of thick daily cloud (109.61).
Thursday’s action is so far holding above broken psychological 110 level, but gains were limited during Asian/early European session, as traders turn focus towards today’s key event – US inflation data.
Economists expect the headline CPI to ease to 8.0% in October from 8.2% previous month, though wide expectations that the Fed may ease its aggressive stance in policy tightening, are very likely not to materialize, as the Fed is not in the position to abandon its hawkish stance with inflation being still four times above the central bank’s 2% target.
Daily studies show a slight improvement, but remain bearish overall, with current recovery to be seen as positioning for fresh weakness while the action stays below 111 zone (daily Tenkan-sen / 50% retracement of 113.02/109.22 bear-leg).
Break here would sideline downside risk and open way for further recovery towards key barriers at 111.52/76 (daily Kijun-sen/daily cloud top), violation of which would bring bulls fully in play.
Res: 111.53; 111.67; 111.12; 111.52.
Sup: 110.00; 109.61; 109.22; 108.92.