STOCKS
Dow (22761.07, -0.06%) could trade below immediate resistance near 22800-22850 region and may have been exhausted after the recent rally in the last few weeks. A pause could be expected now where the index may trade sideways in the 22500-22800 region. A test of 22500 is on the cards for the coming sessions. Only on a sustained break above 22850, we may look at higher levels of 23000.
Dax (12976.40, +0.16%) made a fresh high of 12996 reaching almost our initial target of 13000. We will have to see if the index pauses here or heads higher to break above 13000. Some sessions of sideways consolidation would be preferred just now before an attempt to move further up. Note important resistance zone of 13000-13050.
Nikkei (20770.99, +0.39%) has broken above medium term resistance at 20750 and while the index trades above this level, there could be chances of testing crucial resistance near 20900-21000 levels on the upside in the near to medium term. Near term looks bullish contrary to our expectation of a pause below 20750.
Shanghai (3359.87, -0.43%) fell sharply in the last 2-sessions from 3410. The current fall may extend towards 3330-3325 before again bouncing back towards 3375 and higher.
Nifty (9988.75, +0.09%) was almost stable yesterday. A sustained rise above 10000 is necessary to take the index towards 10050-10100 in the next few sessions; else the index could continue to trade in the 10000-9900 region this week.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1286.62) has bounced well from 1260 levels last week and while that holds, we could see a rise towards 1293-1295 levels over today and tomorrow. Near term looks bullish.
Silver (17.028) has also broken above 16.75 and if the price manages to remain above 17 just now, we could see an extension of the current up move towards 17.50 where the price could take a pause or trade sideways for some time.
Brent (55.83) tested 55 on the downside yesterday and has bounced back from there. While above 55, a rise to 56.30-56.50 is possible. Trade within 56.65-55.00 could be expected in the coming sessions.
WTI (49.65) has interim support at 49 and while that holds, the price could move up towards 50.00-50.50 in the 2-sessions.
Copper (3.0435) has been coming off from 3.05, in line with our expectation but may bounce back from 3.00 to move up to 3.10 in the near term. The corrective dip is short lived and we could soon see a bounce by the end of the week.
FOREX
Dollar Index (93.548) has faced decent rejection from 94 and while that holds, the index could come off towards 93.26-93.00 levels in the near term. Euro (1.1771) on the other hand has moved above 1.1750. the low of 1.1668 tested on Friday could possibly be the near term low for the coming sessions and if prices remain above 1.1700, the Euro could head higher towards 1.1850 given that the resistance at 94 holds on the Dollar Index.
Dollar Yen (112.677) has been trading in the 113.30-112.30 region for the last 8-9 sessions unable to decide which direction to take. The currency pair is likely to continue to trade within the mentioned region for a few more session trying to move up towards 113.00 or higher. A break on either side is needed to get some clarity on further movement. Looking at Nikkei, it could be headed towards crucial resistance and the upside could be limited for the near term.
Pound (1.3158) has bounced from 1.30 and while that holds, a rise to 1.3275 is a possibility. Near term looks bullish.
Aussie (0.7786) could test 0.7700 on the downside before starting to move up again. Trade within 0.78-0.77 looks likely in the near term.
Dollar Rupee could spend some time in the 65.20-65.50 region before trying to move down to 65.00. Some time and price correction is preferred now especially after the sharp rally in the last 2-3 weeks from levels near 64.00 to almost levels near 65.80.
INTEREST RATES
The US yields have paused and could come down a bit before resuming a rise again by next week. A slight dip could be expected in the coming sessions. Note important resistances on the 30YR (2.91%) and 10Yr (2.36%) near 3.00% and 2.50% respectively.
The German-US 2YR (-2.21%) and the German-US 10YR (-1.91%) are trading just above medium term support levels and if that holds the yield spreads could bounce back sharply indicating a rise in Euro for the coming sessions.
