AUDUSD slipped today, breaking below the 0.6695 support (now turned into resistance) barrier, and confirming a lower low on the 4-hour chart. In the bigger picture, the pair is printing lower peaks and lower troughs below the downtrend line drawn from the high of February 2, as well as below all three of the plotted moving averages. This paints a negative short-term outlook for now.
The case for further declines is also supported by the short-term momentum indicators. The RSI fell below 30 and is pointing down, while the MACD is running below both its zero and trigger lines, pointing south as well.
If the bears are willing to stay in the driver’s seat, they could challenge the 0.6630 territory soon, the break of which might pave the way towards the 0.6550 barrier, marked as support by the inside swing high of November 8. If there are no buyers to be found there, another break could see scope for larger bearish extensions, perhaps all the way down to the low of November 10 at 0.6380.
For a bullish reversal scenario to start being examined, a move above 0.6810 may be needed. Such a move could confirm the break above the aforementioned trendline and may set the stage for advances towards the peak of February 21 at 0.6920. If that zone gets violated as well, the bulls may then extend their march towards the 0.7030 area, defined as resistance by the high of February 14.
Wrapping things up, AUDUSD traded lower today, confirming a lower low and thereby signaling the continuation of the prevailing short-term downtrend that’s been in place since February 2. For the outlook to change, a clear break above 0.6810 may be needed.
