USDJPY remains rangebound since the beginning of this year although the recent bullish phase that took prices to the mid-113 handle has shifted to neutral as upside momentum ran out of steam.
The market appears to be finding support at the 200-day moving average (MA) and falling below 111.84 would mean a short-term top is in place at Friday’s 113.43 high.
The immediate risk is tilted to the downside with scope to target the key 111 level around the 100-day MA and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the September-October rally. Further weakness from here has the potential to push prices down to 108.
A rise above the 114 level would shift focus back to the upside and help USDJPY break out of the broader range.
But the short-term bias remains neutral to bearish as trend indicators are essentially flat and MACD has faded its bullish momentum to a neutral one. RSI has turned back down. The overall alignment of the moving averages is bearish.