GBPUSD managed to close marginally above the December-January ceiling of 1.2445 on Monday after a three-day intense battle, shifting the spotlight to April’s bar of 1.2520.
Some caution is necessary as the RSI and the MACD have yet to correct their negative trajectory. Yet, with the price having recently secured another strong foothold around its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and at the lower boundary of the seven-week-old bullish channel, a continuation higher seems to be very likely.
The bulls will need another win around the nearby monthly resistance of 1.2520 in order to advance towards the April-May 2022 peak of 1.2665. Strikingly, the long-term resistance trendline drawn from the 2021 top is also in the neighborhood. Hence, a victory at this point may push the price directly up to the channel’s upper line seen at 1.2775. Slightly higher, the 1.2885-1.3000 region, which includes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2021-2022 downtrend and the ascending line from October, could be another tough obstacle.
In the event the price flips backwards, exiting the channel on the downside at 1.2400, the 50% Fibonacci mark of 1.2285 could immediately come to the rescue. The 50-day SMA might be tested too before the bears attempt to reach the 1.2045-1.1975 constraining zone and the 200-day SMA.
All in all, GBPUSD is looking cautiously bullish in the short-term picture. A decisive close above 1.2520 could confirm additional gains towards a familiar resistance line near 1.2665.