AUD/JPY Technical: Bulls Got Stalled Again at 200-day MA

AUD/JPY Technical: Bulls Got Stalled Again at 200-day MA

• The medium-term up move of AUD/JPY from the 24 March 2023 swing low of 86.06 got stalled again at the key 200-day moving average.
• Short-term downside movement seems to have resurfaced as indicated by the 4-hour RSI.
• Key resistance to watch will be at 92.70.

Fig 1: AUD/JPY trend as of 26 May 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

The recent 460 pips rally of the AUD/JPY from its 26 April 2023 minor swing low of 87.87 has stalled at the key 200-day moving average again (now acting as a resistance at around 91.95), thrice so far (on 2 May, 19 May & 23 May) since it’s corrective medium-term up move from 24 March 2023 swing low of 86.06.

In the longer term, the price actions of AUD/JPY are likely considered to be still evolving in a major downtrend phase as it continues to oscillate within a major descending channel in place since its 13 September 2022 high of 92.01.

Short-term downside momentum seems to have resurfaced as observed by the 4-hour RSI oscillator where it has just started to inch down right below a corresponding resistance at the 67% level. The near-term support to watch will be at 90.70 followed by 87.80 (the 11 May swing low & the ascending trendline that is supporting the current corrective medium-term up move since the 24 March 2023 low).

On the flip side, clearance above the 92.70 key medium-term pivotal resistance invalidates the bearish tone to see the next resistance coming in at 95.55 (swing high areas of 21 October/1 November 2022 & close to the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the multi-month down move from 13 September 2022 high to 24 March 2023 low.