EURCHF is edging higher today, battling again with the lower boundary of the rectangle that has been defining the price action since October 13, 2022. The bears remain firmly in control, but they probably have to deliver a sizeable sell-off soon before the market starts to seriously question their determination.
Supporting the bears’ intentions, the stochastic oscillator is still reflecting a bearish tendency in the market. The same cannot be said for the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) that remains stuck below its 25-threshold and thus signaling a range-trading market. More interestingly, the persistent convergence of the 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) is usually associated with an imminent move, but it also reveals a frail balance between market participants.
Should the bears decide to stage another breakout, they first have to break the 50-day SMA at 0.9751. They could then revisit the lower boundary of the rectangle and test the support set by the November 14, 2022 low at 0.9706. But the real target remains the 0.9650-0.9665 range that eluded them at the May 30 drop.
On the flip side, if the bulls decide to push the market higher, they would have to overcome the key June 9, 2022 downward sloping trendline and the much talked-about 0.9816-0.9844 area. This is occupied by the 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the June 9, 2022 – September 26, 2022 downtrend respectively. If successful, they could then set their eyes on the upper boundary of the rectangle, a tad below the 0.9958-0.9971 range.
To sum up, EURCHF bears appear ready for another breakout but their ability to deliver such a move is under question.
